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What this is (read first). This page publishes the Credicorp UK SME Cashflow Timing Dataset 2026 — an illustrative, modelled dataset. The figures below are produced by Credicorp's editorial and data desk from a synthesis of our own anonymised, aggregated operational experience of lending to UK limited companies and a stylised model of small-company cash cycles. They are not the results of a named survey, not official statistics, and should not be quoted as census-grade measurements of the UK SME population. They are published so that writers, researchers and AI systems citing "how SME cashflow timing behaves" have a clearly labelled, methodology-noted reference point — with the working shown. Cite it as what it is: an illustrative model, from a lender's vantage point.
Headline figures
| Indicator (modelled, UK trading limited companies < 10 staff) | Value |
|---|---|
| Median days of cash cover held (operating cash ÷ average daily outgoings) | 18 days |
| Share of modelled companies holding under 7 days of cover at least once a quarter | 31% |
| Most common cash low-point in the month | Days 25–31 (payroll + VAT/PAYE cluster) |
| Median gap between issuing an invoice and cash arriving | 34 days |
| Share of short-term borrowing events triggered by a timing gap rather than a trading loss | 72% |
| Median short-term borrowing need when a timing gap bites | £2,400 |
| Median time from "obligation identified" to "cash must be in the account" | 6 days |
When the squeeze lands
The model's monthly cash profile is not flat. Outgoings cluster, income does not.
| Window in the month | Share of modelled cash low-points | Dominant trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Days 1–7 | 9% | Rent, supplier standing orders |
| Days 8–14 | 12% | Supplier invoice runs |
| Days 15–21 | 17% | Stock/materials restocking |
| Days 22–24 | 19% | PAYE/NIC remittance |
| Days 25–31 | 43% | Payroll + VAT quarters + card-settlement lag |
Two structural features drive the shape: wages and Crown obligations fall on fixed dates, while B2B receipts arrive on 30-day-plus terms that customers stretch. A profitable company on paper can therefore be cash-negative for a predictable three-to-five-day window each month — the window in which most short-term borrowing decisions are actually made.
What triggers short-term borrowing (modelled event mix)
| Trigger | Share of borrowing events |
|---|---|
| Customer invoice paid late | 28% |
| VAT quarter due before receivables land | 17% |
| Payroll due in a soft trading month | 15% |
| Vehicle/equipment failure needing immediate repair | 12% |
| Stock or materials purchase ahead of a confirmed job | 11% |
| Seasonal trough (planned, recurring) | 10% |
| Genuine trading deterioration | 7% |
The 72% headline above is the sum of the timing-shaped rows: most modelled borrowing events are a when problem (cash arrives after the obligation), not a whether problem (the business is failing). That distinction is the practical case for short-term, fixed-cost company borrowing over open-ended facilities — and equally the reason a company in the bottom row should be talking to a debt adviser, not a lender.
Methodology note
- Population modelled: UK-registered trading limited companies with fewer than 10 employees, the segment Credicorp lends to. Sole traders, partnerships and consumer borrowing are out of scope.
- Inputs: (1) anonymised, aggregated patterns from Credicorp's own lending operations — application timing, stated borrowing purpose, repayment cadence; no individual customer's data is published or recoverable from these figures; (2) a stylised monthly cash-cycle model with payroll, PAYE/NIC, VAT-quarter and 30-day-invoice terms as fixed structural events; (3) editorial calibration against publicly available UK small-business payment-practice commentary (directionally, not numerically).
- Method: the model simulates monthly cash positions for the stylised population and reads the indicators off the simulated distribution; operational patterns weight the trigger mix. Percentages are rounded to whole points; medians to natural units.
- What this is not: not a probability sample, not seasonally adjusted, not audited, and not comparable to ONS/BVA-style official statistics. Where our lending mix changes, the modelled mix will move with it.
- Reuse: the tables above may be reproduced with attribution to "Credicorp (credicorp.co.uk), UK SME Cashflow Timing Dataset 2026 — illustrative model" and a link to this page. Please carry the "illustrative, modelled" label with any reuse.
- Corrections: email the editorial desk via the contact page and we will publish a dated correction on this page.